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Demographic shift12/15/2023 ![]() Stalling Countries Are High-Fertility Countries What differentiates these countries in ways that may be relevant to their contrasting fertility transitions? The DHS provides rich data not only on fertility rates, but also on preferences and behaviors among women and men of childbearing age. However, geography is not likely to be a cause of fertility patterns. The remaining 12 countries are experiencing a fertility stall half of them actually recorded a small increase.Īs shown in Table 1, most of the countries with stalling fertility are located in West Africa. Of the 22 countries included in the analysis, 10 recorded an annual fertility decline of at least 0.05 child per woman between the two most recent surveys and are considered to comprise the group in transition. This threshold represents a very slow rate of decline: The fertility rate in a country with an annual decline of 0.05 would take 20 years to drop by one child. A simple one is employed here: Sub-Saharan African countries were classified in the stalling group if the annual pace of fertility decline between their two most recent DHS reports was below 0.05 child per woman, about half the historical average rate of decline for developing countries in the late 20 th century. There are several possible methods of defining a fertility stall. Researchers have identified a decades-long process, called the “ demographic transition,” during which populations move from high fertility and high mortality rates to a period of low mortality rates and high fertility and finally to both low fertility and low mortality rates, which creates the temporary opportunity for a “ demographic dividend.” While some countries have completed the transition from high to low fertility very quickly, others have stalled along the way. Less Than Half of Sub-Saharan Africa Shows Significant Fertility Decline ![]() What differentiates the countries in sub-Saharan Africa that are recording steady fertility declines from those where fertility has been stagnant or even rising? To explore this question further, I separated sub-Saharan African countries with multiple recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) into two groups based on their fertility transition status. ![]() Within those three high-fertility regions, the clear exception has been Rwanda, where a 25 percent fertility decline between 20 is the first of that speed and magnitude in sub-Saharan Africa. At the regional level, the Southern African countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland) had an estimated total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.6 children per woman in 2005-2010, about half the level of Eastern, Western, and Central Africa. However, Africa’s demography is by no means uniform, and some countries and areas have developed distinctive fertility trends. ![]() While some countries have completed the transition from high to low fertility very quickly, others have stalled along the way ![]()
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